Design a site like this with WordPress.com
Get started

The Truth #3

Hello everyone and welcome in for another article. This is the third instalment of a weekly article I’ll be writing all season long in which I try to determine the truth about puzzling players. I pull suggestions for which players to write about for these articles from the Apples & Ginos community on Discord and the Apples & Ginos Patreon members. Be sure you check out those spots to catch up with me and I would be more than happy to answer any questions you have about Oliver Wahlstrom, Thor, or any other he-men impatiently waiting for their opportunity to shine. Let’s get it!

Zach Werenski, D – CBJ

Werenski is being victimized by a horrific team situation currently, a spot so bad that even Johnny Gaudreau can’t help the power play score a goal (seriously, the Blue Jackets do not have a power goal on the season yet through ten games). Werenski has see about half a minute less even strength time this season, but his individual numbers are still very strong, with what would be career bests in both shots/60 and individual scoring chances for/60 (iSCF/60). He’s even blocking more shots this year for added relevance in your banger leagues. Unfortunately some terrible variance in the way of a 33% IPP or individual points percentage (career norm is 45-50%) and 8.5% oiSH% (last year was 10.6%) is holding back Werenski’s production. Regressing those numbers back up would have Werenski at around six points in ten games and we probably aren’t having this conversation. Columbus is certainly worse than expected and that limits Werenski’s ceiling, but there’s also nowhere to go but up from here and a coaching change is a real possibility. I’m certainly not selling Werenski low.

Kyle Connor, LW – WPG

I thought that Connor was likely to see a decline in ice time under new bench boss Rick Bowness. He’s down a minute per game so far, but that’s because he’s relinquished penalty killing duties and nothing at 5v5 or on the power play. Connor is currently rocking a 12.2 iSCF/60 mark which would be the best of his career thus far, but he has just one goal and three assists in nine games so far. The culprit here is all the luck metrics: Connor has just a 50% IPP, 3% shooting percentage (S%), and 7.2% on-ice shooting percentage (oiSH%). The shots are there, the on-ice numbers are there, the time on ice is there. This is an obvious buy-low candidate if you can make the move.

Oliver Wahlstrom, RW – NYI

Another year, another bunch of eye-popping advanced stats from Wahlstrom. Somehow Wahlstrom has improved once again on the shots/60 and iSCF/60 rates that made me a huge fan of his last year. Unfortunately, Wahlstrom’s even strength deployment in the so-called “top six” of late has not netted him a significant jump in actual ice time. Wahlstrom still only has one game above 15 minutes on the season and has not cracked the top power play unit yet. That being said, Wahlstrom has points in both of the last two games and there are worse places to be at 5v5 than on Mathew Barzal’s wing. I think we’re going to need to see that PP1 deployment before Wahlstrom really takes off, but Wahlstrom is certainly still in a rosterable range currently and the upside here is still one of the greatest in the league.

Arturi Lehkonen, LW – COL

Lehkonen has cooled off a fair bit of late with just two points in his last seven games, but I’m still not close to dropping him. There are very few players that I would consider dropping while they are a fixture on Colorado’s top power play, and Lehkonen is not close to being one. This is a player playing 21-plus minutes a night on one of the best teams in the league who is still supporting a respectable shots/60 and solid iSCF/60 rate. Once the IPP and S% come back up a little bit we’ll be back to enjoying Lehkonen’s contributions to our fantasy lineups. I’m still viewing Lehkonen as a 60-point-pace player rest of season (or at very least until Gabriel Landeskog returns from injury).

Calen Addison, D – MIN

I was a bit surprised to see a lot of support for more Addison discussion in the A&G Discord server today. There are three things that I feel the need to say about Addison. First, he’s factored into a few too many points so far this season and the last five games where he has just one assist is just a little regression coming back for him. Second, his ice time has trended up significantly the last two games and if Addison can solidify his playing time in the 19-20 minute range it makes his ceiling for fantasy miles higher. Lastly, Addison absolutely looks like a pure power play specialist through 26 games of his young career. He’s not a volume shooter (only one game with more than one shot on goal so far this year) and he’s a near zero in the bangers categories (two hits and nine blocks in nine games). When you roster Calen Addison, you need to expect that he will have stretches of games where he’s actually hurting your team, but you’re willing to look past that for the 50 or so points he’ll accumulate over the course of the season as a 19-20 minute PP1 defenseman on a solid Minnesota Wild team. Addison is a hold until he comes off that top power play.

That’s all for this one folks, I hope you had as much fun reading it as I had writing it! Make sure you follow Apples & Ginos on Twitter and join the Apples & Ginos Discord server for more content and to ask any fantasy hockey questions you may have.

Much love,

Nate

Advertisement

Published by Apples & Ginos

Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey Advice

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: