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Year to Date Regression Candidates

Hello everyone, Happy New Year, and welcome in for another article. If you’ve read any of my articles before you’ll know that I often look at three metrics to help determine if a player is performing below or above his expected output: individual points percentage (IPP), shooting percentage (S%), and on-ice shooting percentage (oiSH%). In this article I’ll tackle a few guys who have unsustainably high rates in these metrics and what I think is a more reasonable expectation for them for the rest of the season. Before we dive in, be sure to check out the Apples & Ginos community on Discord and the Apples & Ginos Patreon for even more content. I’m in there every day and would be more than happy to answer any questions you have about Tom Wilson, Ryan Reynolds, or any other unsustainably hot men. Let’s get it!

IPP Too High

Jordan Kyrou, RW – STL

I struggle with Kyrou for a few reasons. The IPP is way too high at 90%, but it’s really the only thing you can say is out of whack for him: the shots are up significantly to 9.2 shots/60 and he’s almost clocking 12 iSCF/60. The ice time is up to 16 and a half minutes per night, and he’s riding shotgun with superstar Vladimir Tarasenko which explains the sky high 38.0 on-ice SCF/60. I don’t think Kyrou will come close to maintaining his current point pace, but he can certainly keep a 65 point pace and could up it to 70 with a little bit of puck luck.

Lucas Raymond, RW – DET

Raymond is another tough one because we don’t really have a great idea of what his “normal” looks like. All I can say is that Raymond has a very high IPP (78%) and a relatively high S% at 15.6%. His actual on-ice GF/60 is pretty hot compared to his CF/60 and SCF/60 numbers, which also gives me some pause. Given that Raymond isn’t a volume shooter and his iSCF/60 rate is just average, I’m not convinced Raymond will sustain his 74-point pace from here on out. I tend to bet against the consistency of rookies and Raymond would hardly be the first rookie to have a hot start and then fade a bit throughout the rest of the season. I’m not saying he will – but if I could trade him for a more proven asset of similar value I would.

Honourable Mentions: Andrew Mangiapane, Drake Batherson, Jordan Eberle, Alexander Barabanov, Alex Newhook

S% Too High

Andrew Mangiapane, RW – CGY

Let me first say that Mangiapane has seen an uptick in ice time of late and his shots/60, iSCF/60, and SCF/60 numbers all say this is a very talented player capable of putting up big numbers for his fantasy managers. But without a change in deployment Mangiapane will not reach his ceiling, and he seems to be second fiddle to both top line and top power play roles. Despite having just three assists on the season, Mangiapane’s IPP is sky high at 84%, which is in turn due to his monstrous 24.7% S%. The oiSH% is in-line with his career numbers so I don’t see a big uptick coming there, but you can’t expect Mangiapane to continue anything close to this pace. I’d estimate Mangiapane should be more around 13 goals at this juncture instead of 18, which is a big hit to his value. If he cracks the top line or top power play consistently it’ll be a different story, but this is an obvious Nikolaj Ehlers situation to me minus the talented linemates Ehlers has on the second line and second power play in Winnipeg (no offense to Dillon Dube and Milan Lucic).

Marcus Foligno, LW – MIN

Foligno has been on an unbelievable heater since the start of the 2020/21 season, shooting 28% in both campaigns. After a career of 9-12% shooting seasons, I do not believe that Foligno has suddenly levelled up at age 30. Foligno’s oiSH% is high as well, and while the SCF/60 numbers have climbed this year, this is not a player you can count on for rest of season production. Foligno’s individual chance generation metrics are not good, and he just lost center Joel Eriksson Ek to injury. I’d be looking for the nearest exit with Foligno and preparing for a bumpy descent.

Honourable Mentions: Anthony Duclair, Andre Burakovsky, Troy Terry, Ivan Barbashev, Alex Newhook, Cale Makar, Jared McCann, Joe Pavelski, Dylan Larkin, Chandler Stephenson, Jack Hughes

oiSH% Too High

Devon Toews, D – COL

Toews is the most obvious example of this statistic in the league right now. Sure Colorado is a juggernaut but Toews’ oiSH% sits at a preposterous 16% right now, probably 4-5% higher than it should be. Toews’ individual regression metrics damn him as well: a bloated 57% IPP and 12% S% are telltale signs that it won’t be all roses when he returns to the ice. His individual and on-ice chance generation numbers remain unchanged from last season, so it’s not like there’s some growth in his game girding this production either. I’d be looking to move on from Toews if you can get someone to buy on him as a 50+ point defenseman.

Tom Wilson, RW – WSH

Let’s first say that Wilson is averaging 19+ minutes a night, which significantly raises his fantasy ceiling. His 55% IPP is in-line with expectation, and while his 17.7% S% is a couple percentage points high, it’s not outlandish. But the advanced numbers paint a clear picture of a player whose shot rates are declining and is riding the great Alex Ovechkin’s coattails to fantasy success. Granted, you will want players who are on the ice when Ovechkin is. But Wilson’s 15.6% oiSH% is simply ridiculous and should drop at least 3-4%, taking a significant bite out of Wilson’s production. Wilson’s hit rates have also tapered off just a bit in the last two seasons, making him a great hits option instead of an elite one. All in all, Wilson is a stock I’m trying to get out of where I have him.

Honourable Mentions: Jordan Greenway, Zach Whitecloud, Dylan Larkin, Ryan Johansen, Marcus Foligno

Stay tuned to the Apples and Ginos Fantasy Hockey Podcast to catch the flip side of these metrics and see who I am looking to acquire!

That’s all for this one folks, I hope you had as much fun reading it as I had writing it! Make sure you follow Apples & Ginos on Twitter and join the Apples & Ginos Discord server for more content and to ask any fantasy hockey questions you may have. If you want to learn more about any of the advanced stats I mentioned in this article, be sure to check out my article on applying advanced stats to fantasy hockey, or check out Natural Stat Trick’s advanced stats glossary.

Thanks for reading, you are appreciated!

Nate

Advanced stats credit: Natural Stat Trick

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Published by Apples & Ginos

Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey Advice

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