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The Truth #6

Hello everyone and welcome in for another article. This is the sixth installment of a weekly article I’ll be writing all season long in which I’ll try to determine the truth about puzzling players. I pull suggestions for which players to write about for these articles from the Apples & Ginos community on Discord and the Apples & Ginos Patreon members. Be sure you check out those spots to catch up with me and I would be more than happy to answer any questions you have about Brock Boeser, Justin Bieber, or anyone else who can make this hairstyle look good. Let’s get it!

Scott Perunovich, D – STL

Perunovich made his NHL debut last week amid much fanfare, probably due to his 20 points in 12 AHL games prior to callup that had him tied for the AHL lead. He’s got an assist in his first three games here and is seeing a solid amount of ice time: 3:28 per game PP TOI, 18:38 total. Unfortunately there’s not really a lot of data here and I wouldn’t want to make sweeping pronouncements about a player’s fantasy upside based on three games. But for me personally I don’t see a lot to get excited about here. Torey Krug has been playing terrific for the Blues so far this season leaving little room for Perunovich to see top line PP deployment, and while 18:38 a night is enough for fantasy relevance, it’s certainly not special. I certainly wouldn’t be shocked to see him sent back to the AHL at any point and wouldn’t view him as much more than a streaming option with some upside if Krug were to get hurt.

Verdict: Stream him if you need him, drop him if you don’t

Seth Jarvis, RW – CAR

Jarvis has been the hottest topic in fantasy circles in the past week, and with good reason. The former Portland Winterhawk has three goals in his last three games and has seemingly staked a claim to a top line role alongside Carolina stars Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov. Jarvis has certainly held his own in the advanced stats department as well over his last five games, posting an individual Corsi For/60 (iCF/60) that ranks 69th in the league (nice). He’s running a little hot on the shooting percentage (S%) at 23.4% in his last five, but the individual points percentage (IPP) is solid at 60% and the on-ice shooting percentage (oiSH%) is roughly average at 10.4%. I like Jarvis’s short term prospects and think he’s a great streamer with lots of potential upside just like everyone else. But even in a best case scenario where Jarvis becomes a fixture in the top-six, I don’t think he maintains fantasy relevance all season long. We’re talking about a coach in Rod Brind’Amour who routinely shuffles his lines to the extent of putting Svechnikov down on the third line and playing him less than 14 minutes in a game. Expecting Jarvis to have sustained fantasy success as a rookie is not something I would bet on, but I will certainly pick him up and play him while he’s hot and getting this deployment.

Verdict: Play him while he’s hot, and then drop him like he’s hot when RBA shuns him

Viktor Arvidsson, RW – LAK

I’ve been highlighting Arvidsson’s work on the Kings’ top line for most of the season, and I’m not likely to stop any time soon. Arvidsson is on the top line and top power play and has been pretty much all season long when he’s been healthy. In his last three games since returning from COVID-19 protocol, he’s shown no signs of being any worse for wear, playing an average of 18 minutes a night and ranking in the top 30 in the league in individual scoring chances for/60 (iSCF/60). Arvidsson was historically around a 12% shooter before posting a dreadful 6.6% shooting percentage last year, and he’s now firing pucks at the best rate of his career while seeing the most ice time in the best deployment he’s seen in the past three years. So yeah, I’m not likely to stop touting Arvidsson any time soon. I think he’s a legitimate threat to pace at a 30-goal, 60-point rate for the rest of the season.

Verdict: I’m a big fan, there’s real production to be had here

Brock Boeser, RW – VAN

Boeser has (like much of his team) undergone a horrific slump of late, going six straight games without a single point. But Boeser is not playing terribly in those six games, with a 9.9 iSCF/60 rate and 8.2 shots/60 rate that falls in line with his career numbers. I don’t think Boeser is a point per game player, but he has a 3.6% oiSH% over this stretch of futility that should be nearly three times higher. Boeser is who we all thought he was, and the rebound will happen sooner rather than later. I’m definitely interested in buying low on him if the opportunity arises – same goes for his teammate Elias Pettersson.

Verdict: He’s still the guy you drafted; just hang on a little longer

Kaapo Kakko, RW – NYR

Kaapo Kakko went through a prolonged cold stretch to start the season despite getting lots of opportunity as the third member of the Artemi Panarin/Ryan Strome line. He’s still there now, but the difference is he’s started cashing his cheques, with five points in his last five games. The odd thing is he’s still barely shooting: his 4.7 shots/60 in those five games ranks 366th in the league over that span. The S% is incredibly high at 43% and the IPP is too high as well (83%). Kakko is a classic regression candidate, but I want to give one word of hope: sometimes luck leads to doing instead of the other way around. Especially with young players needing a confidence boost, a little hot streak can go a long way towards unlocking their potential. I’m not saying that will happen with Kakko, only that it could. I’m not adding Kakko anywhere, but his 17:47 ATOI and ties to Panarin have me on edge, waiting for him to unlock the potential that made him the #2 overall pick in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft.

Verdict: Not adding him, but watching very closely

Before you go, I want you to know I recently launched the Apples and Ginos Fantasy Hockey Podcast and I would be much obliged if you were to give it the time of day. I’ll be providing weekly shows focused on the strategy elements of fantasy hockey and I’m very excited about providing more value to the fantasy hockey community in this way. I’ve already had terrific guests like TJ Branson from Five Hole Fantasy Hockey and Ben Burnett from Short Shifts on the show and the content is top notch.

That’s all for this one folks, I hope you had as much fun reading it as I had writing it! Make sure you follow Apples & Ginos on Twitter and join the Apples & Ginos Discord server for more content and to ask any fantasy hockey questions you may have.

Thanks for reading, you are appreciated!

Nate

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Published by Apples & Ginos

Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey Advice

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