Hello everyone and welcome in for another article. This is the fifth installment of a weekly article I’ll be writing all season long in which I’ll deep dive some hot and cold players and determine if they’re worth trying to acquire or sell off. Before we dive in, be sure to check out the Apples & Ginos community on Discord and the Apples & Ginos Patreon for even more content. I’m in there every day and would be more than happy to answer any questions you have about Oliver Kylington’s point production, quantum entanglement, or anything else that is completely inexplicable. Let’s get it!
Too Hot to Touch
Oliver Kylington, D – CGY
Kylington has put together one of the more remarkable early season point runs from a defenseman that I can recall, putting up 11 points in 15 games (a 60-point pace) despite skating a mere 16:28 per game thus far. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that Kylington’s production is wildly unsustainable as he’s sporting a hilarious 79% individual points percentage (IPP) which should probably be more in the 40% range. Combine that with an 11% shooting percentage (S%) which should probably be about half that number, and you can easily see that Kylington is probably more a 30-point player than a 60-point one. I will say that Kylington has boosted his shot and individual Corsi For (iCF) rates this year which is a solid step forward. If he were to supplant Rasmus Andersson on Calgary’s PP1 I would be willing to roster him, but until then I’m out.
Miro Heiskanen, D – DAL
Remember that 79% IPP that was so ridiculous for Kylington? He’s got nothing on Heiskanen, currently working with an 87% mark that can’t possibly sustain – Heiskanen has posted seasons of 41%, 48%, and 45% IPP in his career so far. The deployment hasn’t changed and while Heiskanen’s shot rate and on-ice scoring chances for/60 (SCF/60) has improved so far this season, I’m not ready to say that Heiskanen has ascended to 60-point defenseman status. I’d be more inclined to view Heiskanen as a 45-50 point player at this point and would be actively trying to sell him based on this hot start if I was rostering him.
Leon Draisaitl, C – EDM // Nazem Kadri, C – COL // Jordan Eberle, RW – SEA // Troy Terry, RW – ANA // Matt Duchene, RW – NSH // Gabriel Landeskog, LW – COL // Dylan Larkin, C – DET // Jordan Kyrou, LW – STL // Ryan Suter, D – DAL // Chris Wideman, D – MTL
The Right Amount of Hot
Nils Hoglander, RW – VAN
We need to talk more about how Hoglander has arguably been Vancouver’s best forward this season on a per-minute basis. Hoglander leads the team in shots/60 and is a few hundredths behind Brock Boeser in individual scoring chances for/60 (iSCF/60). The fact that he’s averaging just 14:43 of ice time is borderline criminal and I’m dreaming of better days ahead. I don’t know if it’ll come or when it will come, but if Hoglander can find his way into better 5v5 deployment and optimally a spot on the top power play unit, he could be a 65+ point player with relative ease. He’s run a little too hot of late with a 25% S% and 83% IPP, but Hoglander has been a consistent force in his limited role all season long and I’m waiting with bated breath for Travis Green to realize it.
Pierre-Luc Dubois, C – WPG
It feels like Dubois is not being given his due for what’s been a terrific start to his season, and that likely is due to teammate Kyle Connor lighting the world on fire with his goal scoring prowess. But Dubois has 15 points in 15 games on the season and ranks third in the league behind only Auston Matthews and Sebastian Aho in iSCF/60 over his last five games. Combine that with an average time on ice that has flirted with 19 minutes per game all season, and Dubois looks like a legitimate 70+ point player who you found in the final round of your draft. I have no qualms about holding Dubois and expecting him to keep producing, and I’d even acquire him if his current manager is less sure about his long-term outlook: you don’t put up these types of numbers by accident.
David Pastrnak, RW – BOS // Sebastian Aho, C – CAR // Vladimir Tarasenko, RW – STL // Cole Sillinger, C – CBJ // Jaden Schwartz, LW – SEA // Oliver Bjorkstrand, RW – CBJ // Pavel Buchnevich, LW – STL // William Nylander, RW – TOR // Brandon Montour, D – FLA // Shea Theodore, D – VGK
Colder than Ice
Jeff Petry, D – MTL
What do we make of Petry’s season thus far? There’s the obvious signs of positive regression: a 17% IPP, 0% S%, and 5.8% on-ice shooting percentage (oiSH%). But Petry’s shot rate is nearly half of what it was last year, and his on-ice Corsi For rate (CF/60) and SCF/60 have both dropped significantly. Petry isn’t the sole cause of Montreal’s issues in this young season, but he is playing substantially worse than he has at any point in the last five years. It’s hard for me to believe that Petry won’t rediscover his game at some point, but I’m willing to drop him until he shows the slightest sign of life if there’s an attractive option to be found on the waiver wire.
David Perron, RW – STL
Perron has had a tale of two seasons already, with just a single point in his last five games after opening the season with eight points in his first five. Perron ranks 217th in the league in iSCF/60 over those five games and 410th in shots/60, truly abysmal numbers. I’m not dropping Perron by any stretch of the imagination, but with the sudden wealth of talent in the St. Louis top-six, I am worried about Perron’s spot on the top power play unit and if we could see Jordan Kyrou or Pavel Buchnevich supplant him if this continues much longer. I won’t blame you if you sell Perron for full price based on his hot start.
Justin Faulk, D – STL // Joel Farabee, LW – PHI // Alexis Lafreniere, LW – NYR // Tim Stutzle, LW – OTT // Rasmus Andersson, D – CGY // Nick Ritchie, LW – TOR // Joonas Donskoi, LW – SEA
Frozen but Thawing
Tyson Barrie, D – EDM
Barrie has had some truly puzzling stretches already this season, starting the year pointless in three straight before rattling off eight points in his next seven games and of late going pointless in five straight games. His ice time has ping-ponged around in these games as well (low of 12:24 and high of 22:43 in his latest outing) which has given some fantasy managers serious pause. I have few qualms continuing to roster Barrie and living with the ups and downs. In his two games over 20 minutes in this latest stretch of futility he’s fired 8 and 5 shots, more than enough to create offense on his own. Barrie will continue to benefit from McDavid and Draisaitl’s brilliance and I am more than happy to take him off the hands of any sweaty-palmed managers I can find in my leagues.
Travis Konecny, RW – PHI
I’m actually very interested in buying the ice-cold Konecny right now, pointless in his last five after a hot start of eight points in nine games. Konecny is 9th in the league in individual Corsi For/60 (iCF/60) over those five pointless games and leads his Flyer teammates in iSCF/60 by a wide margin on the season. If he’s dropped or available in a low-level trade I absolutely want him in my lineup for next week when Philadelphia plays four games including three off-nights. Philly coach Alain Vigneault is notoriously opposed to keeping any semblance of continuity in lines or deployment for anyone not named Claude Giroux or Sean Couturier, but I’m happy to ride the bull for next week at the very least.
Oliver Wahlstrom, RW – NYI // James van Riemsdyk, LW – PHI // Claude Giroux, RW – PHI // Oliver Ekman-Larsson, D – VAN // Robby Fabbri, LW – DET // Matthew Tkachuk, LW – CGY // Kirby Dach, C – CHI // John Klingberg, D – DAL // Keith Yandle, D – PHI // Jaccob Slavin, D – CAR
That’s all for this one folks, I hope you had as much fun reading it as I had writing it! Make sure you follow Apples & Ginos on Twitter, on TikTok, and join the Apples & Ginos Discord server for more content and to ask any fantasy hockey questions you may have. If you want to learn more about any of the advanced stats I mentioned in this article, be sure to check out my article on applying advanced stats to fantasy hockey, or check out Natural Stat Trick’s advanced stats glossary.
Thanks for reading, you are appreciated!
Advanced stats credit: Natural Stat Trick
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