Hello everyone and welcome in for another article. This is the second installment of a weekly article I’ll be writing all season long in which I’ll deep dive some hot and cold players and determine if they’re worth trying to acquire or sell off. Before we dive in, be sure to check out the Apples & Ginos community on Discord and the Apples & Ginos Patreon for even more content. I’m in there every day and would be more than happy to answer any questions you have about Andrei Svechnikov’s shot rates, the Siberian Tiger, or anything else that is truly majestic. Let’s get it!
Too Hot to Touch
Andrew Mangiapane, LW – CGY
Mangiapane is the clearest candidate for this list, shooting an astronomical 40% and rocking a too-perfect 100% individual points percentage (IPP) over his last five games. Normally I’d be pretty excited about Mangiapane’s 12.4 shots/60 and impressive 13.2 individual scoring chances for/60 (iSCF/60), but he’s averaging just 14:33 per game and seems to be set in his bottom six role under new coach Darryl Sutter. Until Mangiapane gets into the top six this production is completely unsustainable.
David Perron, RW – STL
Like Mangiapane, Perron is actually playing very well. He’s 10th in the league in shots/60 across his last five games. My issue is with his 30% S% and 100% IPP. Perron is a legitimate 70-point player but expecting him to pace higher for the rest of the season is probably a fool’s errand. If someone in your league is enamored with Perron’s hot start and you can get a point-per-game player (or a different upgrade to a star level player by packaging Perron +) for him then I say make it happen.
Conor Garland, RW – VAN // Joel Farabee, LW – PHI // Troy Terry, RW – ANA // Cam Atkinson, RW – PHI // Kyle Connor, LW – WPG // Anton Lundell, C – FLA
The Right Amount of Hot
Andrei Svechnikov, RW – CAR
What Andrei Svechnikov is doing right now looks for all intents and purposes like a player taking a step into stardom. Svech is second in the league in shots/60 and iSCF/60 over his last five games and while the S% is high at 20.8%, it’s not insane and the 75% IPP is right in line. I don’t like Svech’s 16:28 ATOI during this run and frankly I feel like the only thing that can stop his ascension to elite status is coach Rod Brind’Amour’s deployment. You have to think that if Svechnikov keeps this up much longer that RBA will be forced to get on board and at least find Svechnikov 17.5-18 minutes a game which may be all he needs to crack the point-per-game barrier on the season.
Vladimir Tarasenko, RW – STL
I admittedly faded Tarasenko in my drafts this year. I wasn’t convinced Tarasenko would be all that interested in playing at 100% intensity given all the off-ice drama that came out over the offseason. Well, all Tarasenko’s done since the season started is lead the league in shots/60 and rank 3rd in iSCF/60. The fact that he’s only getting 15:46 a night is curious, but I can’t imagine that he lingers forever on the third line when he’s producing this way. The underlying stats give me a green light to say Tarasenko is for real and he can absolutely keep up his current pace.
Jonathan Dahlen, LW – SJS // Lucas Raymond, RW – DET // Jordan Kyrou, RW – STL // Teuvo Teravainen, LW – CAR // Brandon Duhaime, LW – MIN // Matt Duchene, RW – NSH
Colder than Ice
Jamie Benn, C – DAL
Jamie Benn has been a staple in fantasy hockey lineups for so long it’s hard to imagine a world without him. But there is truly nothing to like about the product Benn has put on the ice thus far. Despite 30 seconds additional ATOI over what he saw last season, Benn has been atrocious in every respect. His shot rate is down, his individual chance generation rate is down, his on ice chance generation is down, it’s all down down down. With Jason Robertson back healthy now I can’t see a path to major fantasy hockey relevance for Benn in your standard 12-teamers. He’s completely droppable in my opinion.
Nick Suzuki, C – MTL
Suzuki has had a season to forget thus far. 414th in shots/60 and 336th in on-ice SCF/60, Suzuki has been truly awful from an offensive perspective. You can say that Suzuki should probably have a goal by now on his 11 shots and that his on-ice shooting percentage (oiSH%) is way too low at 3.3% and you’d be right on both accounts. But the fact remains that Suzuki is not driving the play himself and that’s what you need out of a #1 centreman. I think Suzuki will find his game eventually, but I’m not seeing any reason to believe it’s about to happen any time soon.
Jeff Petry, D – MTL // Victor Hedman, D – TBL // Jonathan Toews, C – CHI // Rasmus Andersson, D – CGY // Martin Necas, RW – CAR
Frozen but Thawing
Alex Pietrangelo, D – VGK
Alex Pietrangelo has had an absolutely dismal start to the season, somehow managing zero points in his first seven games. But consider that Pietrangelo ranks ninth among defensemen in shots/60 and third in iCF/60 over his last five games while skating an unbelievable 27:42 a night. It’s a legitimate concern where the goals will come from in Vegas with Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone sidelined, but Pietrangelo’s brutal 4.1% oiSH% won’t continue and neither will the goose eggs he’s been putting up.
Auston Matthews, C – TOR
Matthews has had a quiet start to the year, but let’s not get hasty: this is a player ranked 27th in the league in shots/60, 6th in iCF/60, and 5th in iSCF/60 while skating a monstrous 21:33 per game. If there’s any kind of buy-low window on Matthews available to you, you should be jumping down the Matthews’ owner’s throat with a big offer. Break out your Perrons and Coutures and whoever else is hot and make a big 2-for-1 offer that looks better on paper than it actually is.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson, D – VAN // Josh Anderson, RW – MTL // Jakob Chychrun, D – ARI // Jordan Eberle, RW – SEA // Jeff Skinner, LW – BUF // Denis Gurianov, RW – DAL // Roope Hintz, C – DAL
That’s all for this one folks, I hope you had as much fun reading it as I had writing it! Make sure you follow Apples & Ginos on Twitter, on TikTok, and join the Apples & Ginos Discord server for more content and to ask any fantasy hockey questions you may have.
Thanks for reading, you are appreciated!